Ligue 119 Apr, 13:00
Prediction AS Monaco — AuxerreSunday, 19 April 2026 at 13:00
AS Monaco
Home
VS
Pending
Auxerre
Away
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.93
best odds
Very high
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
AS Monaco
63%
Draw
22%
Auxerre
15%
Over 2.5 goals
1.92
52% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.97
51% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +22.5%AS Monaco
3.06
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.96
goals/match
Auxerre
0.90
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
AS Monaco+16% edge
Poisson
79%
Bookmaker
63%
Draw-10% unfavourable
Poisson
12%
Bookmaker
22%
Auxerre-7% unfavourable
Poisson
8%
Bookmaker
15%
Most probable scores
3–0
9.1%
2–0
8.9%
3–1
8.2%
2–1
8.0%
4–0
6.9%
4–1
6.3%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The model predicts a high-scoring game with a 74.3% chance of over 2.5 goals, much higher than the 51.8% implied by bookmakers. This makes the Over 2.5 goals bet a strong value pick.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionLigue 1
Date19 Apr, 13:00
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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