LaLiga21 Apr, 17:00
Prediction Athletic Bilbao — CA OsasunaTuesday, 21 April 2026 at 17:00
Athletic Bilbao
Home
VS
Pending
CA Osasuna
Away
Our Prediction
🔒
Under 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
2.04
best odds
Moderate
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Athletic Bilbao
53%
Draw
27%
CA Osasuna
20%
Over 2.5 goals
1.85
54% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.00
50% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +3.3%Athletic Bilbao
2.12
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.59
goals/match
CA Osasuna
0.47
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Athletic Bilbao+23% edge
Poisson
76%
Bookmaker
53%
Draw-10% unfavourable
Poisson
17%
Bookmaker
27%
CA Osasuna-13% unfavourable
Poisson
7%
Bookmaker
20%
Most probable scores
2–0
16.9%
1–0
15.9%
3–0
11.9%
2–1
7.9%
0–0
7.5%
1–1
7.5%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The Poisson model estimates a 52.3% chance for under 2.5 goals, slightly higher than bookmakers' 49.0%, indicating value in a low-scoring game. Bilbao's defensive solidity supports this under bet with moderate confidence.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionLaLiga
Date21 Apr, 17:00
Analysis published14 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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