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Champions League

29 Apr, 19:00

Prediction Atlético Madrid — ArsenalWednesday, 29 April 2026 at 19:00

Name: Over 2.5 Goals Prediction — Atlético Madrid vs Arsenal
Rating: 5
Author: Footexo

Atlético Madrid

Home

Pending

Arsenal

Away

Our Prediction

⚽

Over 2.5 Goals

over under

Odds

2.10

best odds

Very high

Comparative Statistics

2.1g/m

Avg attack

2.9g/m

1.9ag/m

Avg defence

0.5ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Atlético Madrid

32%

Draw

29%

Arsenal

38%

Over 2.5 goals

2.10

48% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.73

58% implied

∑Poisson Model

🎯 VALUE BET +30.2%

Atlético Madrid

0.89

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

4.29

goals/match

Arsenal

3.40

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Atlético Madrid-26% unfavourable

Poisson

Bookmaker

32%

Draw-19% unfavourable

Poisson

10%

Bookmaker

29%

Arsenal+44% edge

Poisson

82%

Bookmaker

38%

Most probable scores

0–3

9.0%

1–3

8.0%

0–2

7.9%

0–4

7.6%

1–2

7.1%

1–4

6.8%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

The expected total goals of 4.29 suggest a high-scoring game, with Arsenal’s strong attack facing Atlético’s leaky defense. The model’s 77.8% probability for Over 2.5 goals versus bookmakers’ 47.6% indicates a strong value bet. I back Over 2.5 goals at 2.10 due to offensive strengths and defensive vulnerabilities; risk involves a rare defensive stalemate.

Other predictions for this match

✈️

Away Win

@ 2.55

Very high

…

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Bet on this prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

@ 2.10

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