Bundesliga19 Apr, 15:30
Prediction Bayern Munich — VfB StuttgartSunday, 19 April 2026 at 15:30
Bayern Munich
Home
VS
Pending
VfB Stuttgart
Away
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.83
best odds
Very high
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Bayern Munich
67%
Draw
17%
VfB Stuttgart
15%
Over 2.5 goals
1.97
51% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.92
52% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +26.8%Bayern Munich
3.52
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
4.64
goals/match
VfB Stuttgart
1.12
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Bayern Munich+12% edge
Poisson
79%
Bookmaker
67%
Draw-6% unfavourable
Poisson
11%
Bookmaker
17%
VfB Stuttgart-7% unfavourable
Poisson
8%
Bookmaker
15%
Most probable scores
3–1
7.9%
3–0
7.0%
4–1
6.9%
2–1
6.7%
4–0
6.2%
2–0
6.0%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The model predicts an 81.4% chance of over 2.5 goals, much higher than bookmakers' 54.6%, indicating strong value. Bayern's attacking strength and Stuttgart's defensive weaknesses support an offensive game.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionBundesliga
Date19 Apr, 15:30
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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