Bundesliga19 Apr, 17:30
Prediction Borussia Monchengladbach — FSV Mainz 05Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 17:30
Borussia Monchengladbach
Home
VS
Pending
FSV Mainz 05
Away
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.88
best odds
Very high
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Borussia Monchengladbach
40%
Draw
27%
FSV Mainz 05
33%
Over 2.5 goals
1.92
52% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.97
51% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +25.8%Borussia Monchengladbach
2.97
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
4.29
goals/match
FSV Mainz 05
1.32
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Borussia Monchengladbach+30% edge
Poisson
70%
Bookmaker
40%
Draw-12% unfavourable
Poisson
15%
Bookmaker
27%
FSV Mainz 05-19% unfavourable
Poisson
14%
Bookmaker
33%
Most probable scores
2–1
8.0%
3–1
7.9%
2–0
6.1%
3–0
6.0%
4–1
5.9%
1–1
5.4%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The model predicts a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals, well above bookmakers' 53%, indicating a strong value bet. Given Monchengladbach's attacking form and Mainz's scoring ability, an over 2.5 goals bet is highly recommended.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionBundesliga
Date19 Apr, 17:30
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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