Premier League22 Apr, 19:00
Prediction Bournemouth — Leeds UnitedWednesday, 22 April 2026 at 19:00
Bournemouth
Home
VS
Pending
Leeds United
Away
Our Prediction
🔒
Under 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
2.21
best odds
High
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Bournemouth
46%
Draw
26%
Leeds United
27%
Over 2.5 goals
1.81
55% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.15
47% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +16.0%Bournemouth
1.37
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.24
goals/match
Leeds United
0.86
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Bournemouth
Poisson
49%
Bookmaker
46%
Draw
Poisson
28%
Bookmaker
26%
Leeds United
Poisson
24%
Bookmaker
27%
Most probable scores
1–0
14.7%
1–1
12.7%
0–0
10.7%
2–0
10.1%
0–1
9.2%
2–1
8.7%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The model predicts a 61.3% chance of under 2.5 goals, significantly higher than bookmakers' 45.2%, indicating a strong value bet. The expected total goals of 2.24 support a low-scoring game.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionPremier League
Date22 Apr, 19:00
Analysis published15 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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