Premier League21 Apr, 19:00
Prediction Brighton and Hove Albion — ChelseaTuesday, 21 April 2026 at 19:00
Brighton and Hove Albion
Home
VS
Pending
Chelsea
Away
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.62
best odds
High
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Brighton and Hove Albion
38%
Draw
26%
Chelsea
36%
Over 2.5 goals
1.62
62% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.16
46% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +4.3%Brighton and Hove Albion
1.80
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.40
goals/match
Chelsea
1.60
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Brighton and Hove Albion+5% edge
Poisson
43%
Bookmaker
38%
Draw
Poisson
23%
Bookmaker
26%
Chelsea
Poisson
35%
Bookmaker
36%
Most probable scores
1–1
9.6%
2–1
8.6%
1–2
7.7%
2–2
6.9%
1–0
6.0%
2–0
5.4%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The model predicts a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals, higher than bookmakers' 61.7%, indicating value. Both teams' scoring and conceding stats support an open, high-scoring game.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionPremier League
Date21 Apr, 19:00
Analysis published14 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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