Home/Predictions/Serie A/Fiorentina vs Sassuolo

Serie A

26 Apr, 10:30

Prediction Fiorentina — SassuoloSunday, 26 April 2026 at 10:30

Name: Over 2.5 Goals Prediction — Fiorentina vs Sassuolo
Rating: 4
Author: Footexo

Fiorentina

Home

15th in table

Pending

Sassuolo

Away

10th in table

Our Prediction

⚽

Over 2.5 Goals

over under

Odds

1.94

best odds

High

Comparative Statistics

15th

Ranking

10th

1.2g/m

Avg attack

1.2g/m

1.4ag/m

Avg defence

1.3ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Fiorentina

49%

Draw

27%

Sassuolo

25%

Over 2.5 goals

1.94

52% implied

Under 2.5 goals

2.01

50% implied

∑Poisson Model

🎯 VALUE BET +6.3%

Fiorentina

1.62

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.01

goals/match

Sassuolo

1.39

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Fiorentina-6% unfavourable

Poisson

43%

Bookmaker

49%

Draw

Poisson

24%

Bookmaker

27%

Sassuolo+8% edge

Poisson

33%

Bookmaker

25%

Most probable scores

1–1

11.1%

2–1

9.0%

1–0

8.0%

1–2

7.7%

0–1

6.9%

2–0

6.4%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Both Fiorentina and Sassuolo have similar attacking profiles but leaky defenses, suggesting an open game with multiple goals. The Poisson model predicts over 3 total goals, reinforcing this outlook. Bookmakers undervalue the Over 2.5 goals bet, offering a 6.3% edge, making it a profitable long-term wager. Sassuolo's offensive style against a Fiorentina needing points further supports an attacking match. Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 1.94, with risk of a low-scoring tactical game. Stake: 3 units.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

Bet on this prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

@ 1.94

Bet on Betclic →

100€ for new members