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Serie A

26 Apr, 13:00

Prediction Genoa — ComoSunday, 26 April 2026 at 13:00

Name: Over 2.5 Goals Prediction — Genoa vs Como
Rating: 4
Author: Footexo

Genoa

Home

13th in table

Pending

Como

Away

5th in table

Our Prediction

⚽

Over 2.5 Goals

over under

Odds

2.10

best odds

High

Comparative Statistics

13th

Ranking

5th

1.2g/m

Avg attack

1.7g/m

1.4ag/m

Avg defence

0.8ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Genoa

23%

Draw

28%

Como

50%

Over 2.5 goals

2.10

48% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.73

58% implied

∑Poisson Model

🎯 VALUE BET +10.6%

Genoa

1.11

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.03

goals/match

Como

1.92

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Genoa

Poisson

22%

Bookmaker

23%

Draw-6% unfavourable

Poisson

22%

Bookmaker

28%

Como+6% edge

Poisson

56%

Bookmaker

50%

Most probable scores

1–1

10.3%

1–2

9.9%

0–1

9.3%

0–2

8.9%

1–3

6.3%

2–1

5.7%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Genoa concedes frequently while Como boasts a strong attack and solid defense, setting the stage for a high-scoring game. The Poisson model predicts over 3 goals with a 58.2% probability, significantly higher than bookmakers' 47.6%, indicating a profitable value bet. I back Over 2.5 goals at 2.10, confident in Como's offensive pressure exploiting Genoa's defensive weaknesses.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

Bet on this prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

@ 2.10

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