LaLiga21 Apr, 19:30
Prediction Girona — Real BetisTuesday, 21 April 2026 at 19:30
Girona
Home
VS
Pending
Real Betis
Away
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.85
best odds
High
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Girona
35%
Draw
30%
Real Betis
34%
Over 2.5 goals
1.88
53% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.95
51% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +12.3%Girona
1.69
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.42
goals/match
Real Betis
1.73
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Girona
Poisson
38%
Bookmaker
35%
Draw-7% unfavourable
Poisson
23%
Bookmaker
30%
Real Betis+5% edge
Poisson
39%
Bookmaker
34%
Most probable scores
1–1
9.6%
1–2
8.3%
2–1
8.1%
2–2
7.0%
0–1
5.7%
1–0
5.5%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The Poisson model predicts a 66.3% chance of over 2.5 goals, significantly higher than bookmakers' 54.1%, indicating strong value. Betting on over 2.5 goals is highly recommended with confidence 5/5 and a stake of 8/10 units.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionLaLiga
Date21 Apr, 19:30
Analysis published14 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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