Bundesliga25 Apr, 16:30
Prediction Hamburger SV — TSG HoffenheimSaturday, 25 April 2026 at 16:30
Hamburger SV
Home
13th in table
VS
Pending
TSG Hoffenheim
Away
5th in table
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
2.34
best odds
High
Comparative Statistics
13th
Ranking
5th
1.1g/m
Avg attack
2.0g/m
1.6ag/m
Avg defence
1.5ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Hamburger SV
25%
Draw
24%
TSG Hoffenheim
52%
Over 2.5 goals
2.34
43% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.70
59% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +19.7%Hamburger SV
1.29
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.22
goals/match
TSG Hoffenheim
1.94
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Hamburger SV
Poisson
25%
Bookmaker
25%
Draw
Poisson
22%
Bookmaker
24%
TSG Hoffenheim
Poisson
52%
Bookmaker
52%
Most probable scores
1–1
9.9%
1–2
9.6%
0–1
7.7%
0–2
7.5%
2–1
6.4%
1–3
6.2%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Hamburger SV averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.6 conceded; Hoffenheim averages 2.0 scored and 1.5 conceded. The Poisson model expects 3.22 total goals with a 62.4% chance of over 2.5 goals, higher than bookmakers' 42.7%. This indicates a strong value bet on Over 2.5 at 2.34 odds.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionBundesliga
Date25 Apr, 16:30
Analysis published18 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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