Serie A19 Apr, 13:00
Prediction Hellas Verona — AC MilanSunday, 19 April 2026 at 13:00
Hellas Verona
Home
VS
Pending
AC Milan
Away
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.88
best odds
Very high
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Hellas Verona
14%
Draw
23%
AC Milan
63%
Over 2.5 goals
2.05
49% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.85
54% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +19.1%Hellas Verona
1.03
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.79
goals/match
AC Milan
2.76
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Hellas Verona
Poisson
12%
Bookmaker
14%
Draw-8% unfavourable
Poisson
15%
Bookmaker
23%
AC Milan+10% edge
Poisson
73%
Bookmaker
63%
Most probable scores
1–2
8.9%
0–2
8.6%
1–3
8.2%
0–3
7.9%
1–1
6.4%
0–1
6.2%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The model predicts a 72.2% chance of over 2.5 goals, significantly higher than the bookmakers' 53.2%, indicating strong value. Given the offensive strengths and expected goal total, over 2.5 goals is a highly recommended bet.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionSerie A
Date19 Apr, 13:00
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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