Serie A20 Apr, 18:45
Prediction Lecce — FiorentinaMonday, 20 April 2026 at 18:45
Lecce
Home
VS
Pending
Fiorentina
Away
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
2.12
best odds
Moderate
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Lecce
28%
Draw
29%
Fiorentina
44%
Over 2.5 goals
2.12
47% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.68
60% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +8.2%Lecce
0.88
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.91
goals/match
Fiorentina
2.03
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Lecce-13% unfavourable
Poisson
15%
Bookmaker
28%
Draw-9% unfavourable
Poisson
20%
Bookmaker
29%
Fiorentina+20% edge
Poisson
64%
Bookmaker
44%
Most probable scores
0–2
11.3%
0–1
11.1%
1–2
9.9%
1–1
9.7%
0–3
7.6%
1–3
6.7%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The model estimates a 55.4% chance of over 2.5 goals, higher than the bookmakers' 47.2%, indicating value. Given Fiorentina's attacking strength and Lecce's defensive vulnerabilities, an over 2.5 goals bet is a solid choice.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionSerie A
Date20 Apr, 18:45
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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