Premier LeaguePrediction Leeds United — BurnleyFriday, 1 May 2026 at 19:00
Leeds United
Home
15th in table
VS
Burnley
Away
19th in table
Our Prediction
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.78
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.78
56% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.21
45% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +8.8%Leeds United
2.26
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.36
goals/match
Burnley
1.10
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
2–1
9.8%
2–0
8.9%
1–1
8.6%
1–0
7.8%
3–1
7.3%
3–0
6.7%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Le attacking profile of Leeds combined with Burnley's defensive weaknesses suggest a high-scoring game. The Poisson model calculates a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals, higher than the bookmakers’ implied 56.2%, indicating a market inefficiency. I back over 2.5 goals at 1.78 due to expected offensive pressure and defensive fragilities, with the main risk being a surprisingly defensive game.
Match information
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