Ligue 1Prediction Lorient — StrasbourgSunday, 26 April 2026 at 13:00
Lorient
Home
9th in table
VS
Strasbourg
Away
8th in table
Our Prediction
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
2.05
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
2.05
49% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.83
55% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +13.6%Lorient
1.48
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.22
goals/match
Strasbourg
1.74
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–1
10.3%
1–2
9.0%
2–1
7.6%
0–1
7.0%
2–2
6.6%
0–2
6.0%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
With 3.22 expected goals, this match is poised for a high-scoring affair. The Poisson model gives a 62.4% chance for over 2.5 goals, far above the bookmakers’ 48.8%, signaling clear value. Both teams’ offensive tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities support this bet. I back over 2.5 goals at 2.05, expecting an open, attacking game. Risk: Lorient’s defense unexpectedly holds strong.
Match information
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