Premier League19 Apr, 15:30
Prediction Manchester City — ArsenalSunday, 19 April 2026 at 15:30
Manchester City
Home
VS
Pending
Arsenal
Away
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.85
best odds
High
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Manchester City
51%
Draw
26%
Arsenal
22%
Over 2.5 goals
2.03
49% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.87
53% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +10.0%Manchester City
1.76
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.30
goals/match
Arsenal
1.54
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Manchester City-8% unfavourable
Poisson
43%
Bookmaker
51%
Draw
Poisson
23%
Bookmaker
26%
Arsenal+12% edge
Poisson
34%
Bookmaker
22%
Most probable scores
1–1
10.0%
2–1
8.8%
1–2
7.7%
2–2
6.8%
1–0
6.5%
2–0
5.7%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The match is expected to be high-scoring, with a Poisson model probability of 64% for over 2.5 goals, well above bookmakers' 54.1%. This value bet at 1.85 odds is strongly recommended alongside the Arsenal win prediction.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionPremier League
Date19 Apr, 15:30
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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