Ligue 119 Apr, 15:15
Prediction Nantes — BrestSunday, 19 April 2026 at 15:15
Nantes
Home
VS
Pending
Brest
Away
Our Prediction
🏠
Home Win
match result
Odds
2.41
best odds
High
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Nantes
40%
Draw
29%
Brest
31%
Over 2.5 goals
1.94
52% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.94
52% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +15.2%Nantes
1.75
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.68
goals/match
Brest
0.93
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Nantes+17% edge
Poisson
57%
Bookmaker
40%
Draw-6% unfavourable
Poisson
23%
Bookmaker
29%
Brest-11% unfavourable
Poisson
20%
Bookmaker
31%
Most probable scores
1–0
12.0%
1–1
11.2%
2–0
10.5%
2–1
9.8%
0–0
6.9%
0–1
6.4%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Nantes is favored to win with a 56.7% probability from the Poisson model, significantly higher than bookmaker odds. The model detects value in betting on Nantes to win, recommending a confident bet.
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Match information
CompetitionLigue 1
Date19 Apr, 15:15
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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