Ligue 1Prediction Paris FC — LilleSunday, 26 April 2026 at 15:15
Paris FC
Home
10th in table
VS
Lille
Away
3rd in table
Our Prediction
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.92
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.92
52% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.95
51% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +7.9%Paris FC
1.33
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.11
goals/match
Lille
1.77
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–1
10.6%
1–2
9.4%
0–1
7.9%
2–1
7.1%
0–2
7.0%
2–2
6.3%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Lille’s need to avoid defeat against a mid-table Paris FC with defensive weaknesses suggests an open, high-scoring game. The Poisson model signals a 59.9% chance for over 2.5 goals, significantly higher than bookmakers’ 52.1%, indicating value. I back over 2.5 goals at 1.92, confident that Lille’s offensive pressure will break down Paris FC’s defense, though a defensive Lille could invalidate this bet.
Match information
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