Champions League28 Apr, 19:00
Prediction Paris Saint Germain — Bayern MunichTuesday, 28 April 2026 at 19:00
Paris Saint Germain
Home
VS
Pending
Bayern Munich
Away
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
2.12
best odds
Very high
Comparative Statistics
2.6g/m
Avg attack
2.8g/m
1.4ag/m
Avg defence
1.0ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Paris Saint Germain
42%
Draw
25%
Bayern Munich
33%
Over 2.5 goals
2.12
47% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.72
58% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +33.3%Paris Saint Germain
1.81
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
4.36
goals/match
Bayern Munich
2.55
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Paris Saint Germain-15% unfavourable
Poisson
27%
Bookmaker
42%
Draw-6% unfavourable
Poisson
19%
Bookmaker
25%
Bayern Munich+21% edge
Poisson
54%
Bookmaker
33%
Most probable scores
1–2
7.5%
2–2
6.8%
1–3
6.4%
1–1
5.9%
2–3
5.8%
2–1
5.3%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The expected total goals of 4.36 strongly favor an over 2.5 goals bet, with the Poisson model estimating an 80.5% chance versus bookmakers' 47.2%. Both teams' offensive firepower and defensive weaknesses support a high-scoring game. I back over 2.5 goals at 2.12, confident in an open, attacking match.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionChampions League
Date28 Apr, 19:00
Analysis published21 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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