Ligue 119 Apr, 18:45
Prediction Paris Saint Germain — LyonSunday, 19 April 2026 at 18:45
Paris Saint Germain
Home
VS
Pending
Lyon
Away
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.95
best odds
Very high
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Paris Saint Germain
74%
Draw
15%
Lyon
11%
Over 2.5 goals
1.89
53% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.98
51% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +20.3%Paris Saint Germain
2.64
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.74
goals/match
Lyon
1.10
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Paris Saint Germain-4% unfavourable
Poisson
70%
Bookmaker
74%
Draw
Poisson
16%
Bookmaker
15%
Lyon
Poisson
13%
Bookmaker
11%
Most probable scores
2–1
9.1%
2–0
8.3%
3–1
8.0%
3–0
7.3%
1–1
6.9%
1–0
6.3%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The Poisson model predicts a 71.6% chance of over 2.5 goals, significantly higher than bookmakers' implied 51.3%, indicating a strong value bet. The expected total goals is 3.74, suggesting an open, high-scoring game.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionLigue 1
Date19 Apr, 18:45
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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