Serie APrediction Pisa — LecceFriday, 1 May 2026 at 18:45
Pisa
Home
20th in table
VS
Lecce
Away
17th in table
Our Prediction
Under 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
2.08
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.78
56% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.08
48% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +14.8%Pisa
1.20
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.18
goals/match
Lecce
0.98
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–0
13.6%
1–1
13.3%
0–0
11.3%
0–1
11.1%
2–0
8.1%
2–1
8.0%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Can a goal fest be expected when both teams average only 0.7 goals scored per match and face relegation pressure? Their defensive weaknesses invite caution, shaping a tense, low-scoring encounter. The Poisson model calculates a 62.8% chance of under 2.5 goals, significantly higher than the bookmakers' 48.1%, highlighting a market inefficiency. Defensive caution dominates due to the stakes, making Under 2.5 goals a strong bet at 2.08. Main risk: an early goal that might open the game. Stake: 3 units.
Match information
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