Bundesliga24 Apr, 18:30
Prediction RB Leipzig — Union BerlinFriday, 24 April 2026 at 18:30
RB Leipzig
Home
VS
Pending
Union Berlin
Away
Our Prediction
✈️
Away Win
match result
Odds
8.80
best odds
Very low
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
RB Leipzig
70%
Draw
19%
Union Berlin
11%
Over 2.5 goals
1.52
66% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.42
41% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +4.1%RB Leipzig
2.01
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.88
goals/match
Union Berlin
0.87
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
RB Leipzig-6% unfavourable
Poisson
64%
Bookmaker
70%
Draw
Poisson
21%
Bookmaker
19%
Union Berlin+4% edge
Poisson
15%
Bookmaker
11%
Most probable scores
2–0
11.3%
1–0
11.2%
2–1
9.9%
1–1
9.8%
3–0
7.6%
3–1
6.6%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Union Berlin’s away win is undervalued by bookmakers, with a 15.5% Poisson probability versus an 11.4% implied probability, offering a +4.1% edge. This makes betting on an upset a valuable but riskier option.
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Match information
CompetitionBundesliga
Date24 Apr, 18:30
Analysis published17 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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