UEFA Europa League16 Apr, 19:00
Prediction Real Betis — SC BragaThursday, 16 April 2026 at 19:00
Real Betis
Home
13th in table
VS
Pending
SC Braga
Away
25th in table
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.97
best odds
High
Comparative Statistics
WLWWL
Form (5)
WLLWD
13th
Ranking
25th
1.6g/m
Avg attack
1.1g/m
1.1ag/m
Avg defence
1.5ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Real Betis
52%
Draw
27%
SC Braga
21%
Over 2.5 goals
2.05
49% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.85
54% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +13.6%Real Betis
3.09
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.39
goals/match
SC Braga
0.30
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Real Betis+37% edge
Poisson
89%
Bookmaker
52%
Draw-20% unfavourable
Poisson
7%
Bookmaker
27%
SC Braga-19% unfavourable
Poisson
2%
Bookmaker
21%
Most probable scores
3–0
16.6%
2–0
16.1%
4–0
12.8%
1–0
10.4%
5–0
7.9%
3–1
5.0%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The model predicts a 64.4% chance of over 2.5 goals, higher than bookmakers' implied 50.8%, indicating value. Betis' strong attack and Braga's defensive weaknesses support this bet.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionEuropa League
Date16 Apr, 19:00
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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