Ligue 1Prediction Rennes — NantesSunday, 26 April 2026 at 15:15
Rennes
Home
5th in table
VS
Nantes
Away
17th in table
Our Prediction
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.85
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.85
54% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.03
49% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +6.8%Rennes
2.29
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.16
goals/match
Nantes
0.87
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
2–0
11.2%
1–0
9.7%
2–1
9.7%
3–0
8.5%
1–1
8.4%
3–1
7.4%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Rennes’ strong attack faces Nantes’ fragile defense, creating conditions for a high-scoring game. The Poisson model predicts over 3 goals, signaling offensive intensity. Bookmakers undervalue this with a 6.8% probability gap, making Over 2.5 goals a profitable bet given Nantes’ need to attack. Verdict: confident Over 2.5 goals at 1.85, risk lies in an unexpectedly defensive Nantes approach.
Match information
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