Bundesliga19 Apr, 13:30
Prediction SC Freiburg — 1. FC HeidenheimSunday, 19 April 2026 at 13:30
SC Freiburg
Home
VS
Pending
1. FC Heidenheim
Away
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
2.07
best odds
Very high
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
SC Freiburg
57%
Draw
23%
1. FC Heidenheim
20%
Over 2.5 goals
2.04
49% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.85
54% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +25.9%SC Freiburg
2.47
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.89
goals/match
1. FC Heidenheim
1.42
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
SC Freiburg
Poisson
60%
Bookmaker
57%
Draw-4% unfavourable
Poisson
19%
Bookmaker
23%
1. FC Heidenheim
Poisson
21%
Bookmaker
20%
Most probable scores
2–1
8.8%
3–1
7.3%
1–1
7.2%
2–2
6.3%
2–0
6.2%
3–2
5.2%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The model predicts a high-scoring game with a 74.2% chance of over 2.5 goals, significantly higher than bookmakers' 48.3%. This represents a strong value bet on over 2.5 goals.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionBundesliga
Date19 Apr, 13:30
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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