Ligue 119 Apr, 15:15
Prediction Strasbourg — RennesSunday, 19 April 2026 at 15:15
Strasbourg
Home
VS
Pending
Rennes
Away
Our Prediction
🏠
Home Win
match result
Odds
2.49
best odds
High
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Strasbourg
35%
Draw
26%
Rennes
39%
Over 2.5 goals
1.90
53% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.99
50% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +24.7%Strasbourg
2.57
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.84
goals/match
Rennes
1.27
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Strasbourg+30% edge
Poisson
65%
Bookmaker
35%
Draw-9% unfavourable
Poisson
17%
Bookmaker
26%
Rennes-22% unfavourable
Poisson
17%
Bookmaker
39%
Most probable scores
2–1
9.0%
3–1
7.7%
2–0
7.1%
1–1
7.0%
3–0
6.1%
2–2
5.7%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Strasbourg is favored to win at home with a 64.8% probability from the Poisson model, significantly higher than bookmakers' 40.2%, indicating value in the 2.49 odds. The recommendation is a strong confidence bet on Strasbourg's victory.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionLigue 1
Date19 Apr, 15:15
Analysis published13 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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