BundesligaPrediction Union Berlin — 1. FC KölnSaturday, 2 May 2026 at 13:30
Union Berlin
Home
12th in table
VS
1. FC Köln
Away
13th in table
Our Prediction
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.88
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.88
53% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.96
51% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +8.1%Union Berlin
1.58
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.17
goals/match
1. FC Köln
1.59
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–1
10.6%
1–2
8.4%
2–1
8.3%
0–1
6.7%
1–0
6.6%
2–2
6.6%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The offensive-defensive gap between teams indicates an open match: Union Berlin scores little but concedes a lot, Köln has a stronger attack but also defensive frailties. The Poisson model expects more than 3 goals on average.
The model estimates a 61.3% chance for over 2.5 goals, higher than bookmakers' 53.2%, revealing market inefficiency due to both teams’ offensive tendencies and defensive weaknesses.
I back OVER 2.5 goals @ 1.88. This bet offers value with a high goal-scoring probability. Main risk: a low-scoring, defensive game. Stake: 3 units.
Match information
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