BundesligaPrediction Werder Bremen — AugsburgSaturday, 2 May 2026 at 13:30
Werder Bremen
Home
15th in table
VS
Augsburg
Away
9th in table
Our Prediction
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
2.00
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
2.00
50% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.85
54% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +10.4%Werder Bremen
1.71
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.12
goals/match
Augsburg
1.41
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–1
10.6%
2–1
9.1%
1–0
7.5%
1–2
7.5%
2–0
6.4%
2–2
6.4%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The Poisson model expects 3.12 goals, well above the 2.5 threshold, indicating an attacking game. The Over 2.5 probability at 60.4% significantly exceeds the bookmaker's 50%, revealing market inefficiency. Bremen's urgency and Augsburg's leaky defense support a high-scoring match.
Bremen's need to win and Augsburg's freedom to counterattack create favorable conditions for multiple goals, making the 2.00 odds a valuable bet.
I back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.00. Bremen's urgency and defensive weaknesses suggest a goal-rich encounter. Main risk: a tactically closed, low-scoring game. Stake: 3 units.
Match information
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