Premier League25 Apr, 14:00
Prediction Liverpool — Crystal PalaceSaturday, 25 April 2026 at 14:00
Liverpool
Home
5th in table
VS
Pending
Crystal Palace
Away
13th in table
Our Prediction
🔒
Under 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
2.31
best odds
Moderate
Comparative Statistics
5th
Ranking
13th
1.6g/m
Avg attack
1.1g/m
1.3ag/m
Avg defence
1.2ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Liverpool
62%
Draw
21%
Crystal Palace
17%
Over 2.5 goals
1.54
65% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.31
43% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +4.4%Liverpool
1.68
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.77
goals/match
Crystal Palace
1.08
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Liverpool-11% unfavourable
Poisson
51%
Bookmaker
62%
Draw
Poisson
24%
Bookmaker
21%
Crystal Palace+7% edge
Poisson
24%
Bookmaker
17%
Most probable scores
1–1
11.5%
1–0
10.6%
2–1
9.7%
2–0
8.9%
0–1
6.8%
0–0
6.3%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Expected goals total 2.77 with 47.7% chance under 2.5 goals, higher than bookmakers' 43.3%. Under 2.5 at 2.31 offers value. I back under 2.5 goals for value.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionPremier League
Date25 Apr, 14:00
Analysis published18 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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