Premier League25 Apr, 16:30
Prediction Arsenal — Newcastle UnitedSaturday, 25 April 2026 at 16:30
Arsenal
Home
1st in table
VS
Pending
Newcastle United
Away
14th in table
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.56
best odds
High
Comparative Statistics
1st
Ranking
14th
1.9g/m
Avg attack
1.4g/m
0.8ag/m
Avg defence
1.5ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Arsenal
62%
Draw
21%
Newcastle United
17%
Over 2.5 goals
1.56
64% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.28
44% implied
∑Poisson Model
Arsenal
2.39
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.17
goals/match
Newcastle United
0.79
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Arsenal+11% edge
Poisson
73%
Bookmaker
62%
Draw-4% unfavourable
Poisson
17%
Bookmaker
21%
Newcastle United-7% unfavourable
Poisson
10%
Bookmaker
17%
Most probable scores
2–0
11.9%
1–0
10.0%
3–0
9.5%
2–1
9.4%
1–1
7.9%
3–1
7.5%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The Poisson model expects 3.17 goals and a 61.1% chance of over 2.5 goals. Arsenal scores 1.9 goals per match, Newcastle concedes 1.5. The 1.56 odds for over 2.5 goals align well with this probability. I back over 2.5 goals at 1.56.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionPremier League
Date25 Apr, 16:30
Analysis published18 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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