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Premier League

25 Apr, 18:30

Prediction Arsenal — Newcastle UnitedSaturday, 25 April 2026 at 18:30

Name: Home Win Prediction — Arsenal vs Newcastle United
Rating: 5
Author: Footexo

Arsenal

Home

1st in table

1 — 0

✓ Won

Newcastle United

Away

14th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

1.52

best odds

Very high

Comparative Statistics

1st

Ranking

14th

1.9g/m

Avg attack

1.4g/m

0.8ag/m

Avg defence

1.5ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Arsenal

65%

Draw

20%

Newcastle United

15%

Over 2.5 goals

1.54

65% implied

Under 2.5 goals

2.26

44% implied

∑Poisson Model

🎯 VALUE BET +6.2%

Arsenal

2.35

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.13

goals/match

Newcastle United

0.78

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Arsenal+7% edge

Poisson

72%

Bookmaker

65%

Draw

Poisson

17%

Bookmaker

20%

Newcastle United-4% unfavourable

Poisson

11%

Bookmaker

15%

Most probable scores

2–0

12.0%

1–0

10.3%

2–1

9.4%

3–0

9.4%

1–1

8.0%

3–1

7.4%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Arsenal's strong offensive form and Newcastle's defensive vulnerabilities set the stage for a clear home win. The Poisson model assigns Arsenal a 72% chance to win, higher than the bookmakers' 65.8%, signaling a profitable value bet. I back Arsenal to win at 1.52, confident in their dominance, with the only risk being a stubborn Newcastle defense leading to a draw.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

Bet on this prediction

Home Win

@ 1.52

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