Premier League25 Apr, 16:30
Prediction Arsenal — Newcastle UnitedSaturday, 25 April 2026 at 16:30
Arsenal
Home
1st in table
VS
Pending
Newcastle United
Away
14th in table
Our Prediction
🏠
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.46
best odds
Very high
Comparative Statistics
1st
Ranking
14th
1.9g/m
Avg attack
1.4g/m
0.8ag/m
Avg defence
1.5ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Arsenal
62%
Draw
21%
Newcastle United
17%
Over 2.5 goals
1.56
64% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.28
44% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +4.1%Arsenal
2.39
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.17
goals/match
Newcastle United
0.79
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Arsenal+11% edge
Poisson
73%
Bookmaker
62%
Draw-4% unfavourable
Poisson
17%
Bookmaker
21%
Newcastle United-7% unfavourable
Poisson
10%
Bookmaker
17%
Most probable scores
2–0
11.9%
1–0
10.0%
3–0
9.5%
2–1
9.4%
1–1
7.9%
3–1
7.5%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Arsenal leads the league, scoring 1.9 goals per match and conceding 0.8, while Newcastle is 14th with weaker defense. The Poisson model gives Arsenal a 72.6% win probability, higher than bookmakers' 68.5%. I back Arsenal to win at 1.46 due to clear value and strong likelihood.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionPremier League
Date25 Apr, 16:30
Analysis published18 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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