Champions League28 Apr, 18:00
Prediction Atlético Madrid — ArsenalTuesday, 28 April 2026 at 18:00
Atlético Madrid
Home
VS
Pending
Arsenal
Away
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.96
best odds
Very high
Comparative Statistics
2.1g/m
Avg attack
2.9g/m
1.9ag/m
Avg defence
0.5ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Atlético Madrid
34%
Draw
28%
Arsenal
38%
Over 2.5 goals
1.96
51% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.85
54% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +26.8%Atlético Madrid
0.89
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
4.29
goals/match
Arsenal
3.40
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Atlético Madrid-28% unfavourable
Poisson
6%
Bookmaker
34%
Draw-18% unfavourable
Poisson
10%
Bookmaker
28%
Arsenal+44% edge
Poisson
82%
Bookmaker
38%
Most probable scores
0–3
9.0%
1–3
8.0%
0–2
7.9%
0–4
7.6%
1–2
7.1%
1–4
6.8%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The model predicts over 4 total goals, with Arsenal's high scoring and Atlético's leaky defense suggesting a high-scoring game. Bookmakers undervalue over 2.5 goals at 51% versus our 77.8%, indicating a strong value bet. I back over 2.5 goals at 1.96, expecting an offensive showcase, with risk being a rare defensive stalemate.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionChampions League
Date28 Apr, 18:00
Analysis published21 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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