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Champions League

29 Apr, 21:00

Prediction Atlético Madrid — ArsenalWednesday, 29 April 2026 at 21:00

Name: Away Win Prediction — Atlético Madrid vs Arsenal
Rating: 5
Author: Footexo

Atlético Madrid

Home

1 — 1

✗ Lost

Arsenal

Away

Our Prediction

✈️

Away Win

match result

Odds

2.55

best odds

Very high

Comparative Statistics

2.1g/m

Avg attack

2.9g/m

1.9ag/m

Avg defence

0.5ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Atlético Madrid

34%

Draw

28%

Arsenal

38%

Over 2.5 goals

1.96

51% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.85

54% implied

∑Poisson Model

🎯 VALUE BET +42.6%

Atlético Madrid

0.89

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

4.29

goals/match

Arsenal

3.40

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Atlético Madrid-28% unfavourable

Poisson

Bookmaker

34%

Draw-18% unfavourable

Poisson

10%

Bookmaker

28%

Arsenal+44% edge

Poisson

82%

Bookmaker

38%

Most probable scores

0–3

9.0%

1–3

8.0%

0–2

7.9%

0–4

7.6%

1–2

7.1%

1–4

6.8%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Atlético Madrid's defensive struggles contrast sharply with Arsenal's potent attack and solid defense, favoring a clear away win. The model shows an 81.8% chance for Arsenal victory versus bookmakers' 39.2%, indicating a strong value bet. I back Arsenal to win at 2.55 due to their tactical edge and form, with risk being an unlikely defensive masterclass from Atlético.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

Bet on this prediction

Away Win

@ 2.55

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