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LaLiga

22 Apr, 19:30

Prediction Barcelona — Celta VigoWednesday, 22 April 2026 at 19:30

Name: Home Win Prediction — Barcelona vs Celta Vigo
Rating: 5
Author: Footexo

Barcelona

Home

Pending

Celta Vigo

Away

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

1.27

best odds

Very high

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Barcelona

75%

Draw

13%

Celta Vigo

11%

Over 2.5 goals

1.97

51% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.85

54% implied

∑Poisson Model

Barcelona

4.16

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

5.49

goals/match

Celta Vigo

1.32

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Barcelona+4% edge

Poisson

79%

Bookmaker

75%

Draw-4% unfavourable

Poisson

Bookmaker

13%

Celta Vigo-4% unfavourable

Poisson

Bookmaker

11%

Most probable scores

4–1

6.9%

3–1

6.6%

5–1

5.7%

4–0

5.2%

3–0

5.0%

2–1

4.8%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Barcelona is strongly favored to win at home with a 78.6% probability according to the Poisson model, supported by their superior attacking and defensive stats. The predicted scoreline of 4-1 highlights their expected dominance over Celta Vigo.

Other predictions for this match

⚽

Over 2.5 Goals

@ 1.88

Very high

…

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Bet on this prediction

Home Win

@ 1.27

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