LaLiga22 Apr, 19:30
Prediction Barcelona — Celta VigoWednesday, 22 April 2026 at 19:30
Barcelona
Home
VS
Pending
Celta Vigo
Away
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.88
best odds
Very high
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Barcelona
75%
Draw
13%
Celta Vigo
11%
Over 2.5 goals
1.97
51% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.85
54% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +31.7%Barcelona
4.16
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
5.49
goals/match
Celta Vigo
1.32
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Barcelona+4% edge
Poisson
79%
Bookmaker
75%
Draw-4% unfavourable
Poisson
9%
Bookmaker
13%
Celta Vigo-4% unfavourable
Poisson
7%
Bookmaker
11%
Most probable scores
4–1
6.9%
3–1
6.6%
5–1
5.7%
4–0
5.2%
3–0
5.0%
2–1
4.8%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The model predicts a high-scoring match with an 84.9% chance of over 2.5 goals, significantly higher than bookmakers' implied probability. This value bet is supported by Barcelona's strong attack and Celta Vigo's ability to score.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionLaLiga
Date22 Apr, 19:30
Analysis published15 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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