Bundesliga26 Apr, 15:30
Prediction Borussia Dortmund — SC FreiburgSunday, 26 April 2026 at 15:30
Borussia Dortmund
Home
2nd in table
VS
Pending
SC Freiburg
Away
7th in table
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.64
best odds
High
Comparative Statistics
2nd
Ranking
7th
2.0g/m
Avg attack
1.5g/m
1.0ag/m
Avg defence
1.6ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Borussia Dortmund
66%
Draw
19%
SC Freiburg
16%
Over 2.5 goals
1.64
61% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.46
41% implied
∑Poisson Model
Borussia Dortmund
2.29
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.28
goals/match
SC Freiburg
0.99
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Borussia Dortmund
Poisson
66%
Bookmaker
66%
Draw
Poisson
18%
Bookmaker
19%
SC Freiburg
Poisson
15%
Bookmaker
16%
Most probable scores
2–0
9.9%
2–1
9.8%
1–0
8.6%
1–1
8.5%
3–0
7.6%
3–1
7.5%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Dortmund’s attacking style against Freiburg’s leaky defense points to a high-scoring game. The Poisson model’s 63.4% probability for over 2.5 goals surpasses bookmakers’ odds, indicating value. Confident that tactical openness will yield multiple goals, the bet is over 2.5 goals at 1.64 odds.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionBundesliga
Date26 Apr, 15:30
Analysis published19 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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