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Bundesliga

26 Apr, 17:30

Prediction Borussia Dortmund — SC FreiburgSunday, 26 April 2026 at 17:30

Name: Home Win Prediction — Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg
Rating: 4
Author: Footexo

Borussia Dortmund

Home

2nd in table

4 — 0

✓ Won

SC Freiburg

Away

7th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

1.40

best odds

High

Comparative Statistics

2nd

Ranking

7th

2.0g/m

Avg attack

1.5g/m

1.0ag/m

Avg defence

1.6ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Borussia Dortmund

65%

Draw

19%

SC Freiburg

16%

Over 2.5 goals

1.64

61% implied

Under 2.5 goals

2.46

41% implied

∑Poisson Model

Borussia Dortmund

2.29

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.28

goals/match

SC Freiburg

0.99

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Borussia Dortmund

Poisson

66%

Bookmaker

65%

Draw

Poisson

18%

Bookmaker

19%

SC Freiburg

Poisson

15%

Bookmaker

16%

Most probable scores

2–0

9.9%

2–1

9.8%

1–0

8.6%

1–1

8.5%

3–0

7.6%

3–1

7.5%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Borussia Dortmund’s strong attack and Freiburg’s leaky defense set the stage for a clear home win. The Poisson model slightly edges Dortmund’s win probability above bookmakers, indicating a reliable value bet. Confident in Dortmund’s tactical dominance and offensive firepower, the prediction is a home victory at 1.40 odds.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

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Home Win

@ 1.40

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