Ligue 124 Apr, 18:45
Prediction Brest — RC LensFriday, 24 April 2026 at 18:45
Brest
Home
VS
Pending
RC Lens
Away
Our Prediction
🔒
Under 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
2.12
best odds
Moderate
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Brest
22%
Draw
24%
RC Lens
54%
Over 2.5 goals
1.68
60% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.12
47% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +4.1%Brest
1.34
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.62
goals/match
RC Lens
1.28
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Brest+16% edge
Poisson
38%
Bookmaker
22%
Draw
Poisson
26%
Bookmaker
24%
RC Lens-19% unfavourable
Poisson
35%
Bookmaker
54%
Most probable scores
1–1
12.5%
1–0
9.7%
0–1
9.3%
2–1
8.4%
1–2
8.0%
0–0
7.2%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The match is expected to be tight with defensive caution from both sides. The Poisson model favors under 2.5 goals with a 51.3% probability, slightly higher than bookmakers' 47.2%, making it a value bet at 2.12 odds.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionLigue 1
Date24 Apr, 18:45
Analysis published17 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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