Ligue 124 Apr, 18:45
Prediction Brest — RC LensFriday, 24 April 2026 at 18:45
Brest
Home
VS
Pending
RC Lens
Away
Our Prediction
🏠
Home Win
match result
Odds
4.30
best odds
Low
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Brest
22%
Draw
24%
RC Lens
54%
Over 2.5 goals
1.68
60% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.12
47% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +15.0%Brest
1.34
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.62
goals/match
RC Lens
1.28
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Brest+16% edge
Poisson
38%
Bookmaker
22%
Draw
Poisson
26%
Bookmaker
24%
RC Lens-19% unfavourable
Poisson
35%
Bookmaker
54%
Most probable scores
1–1
12.5%
1–0
9.7%
0–1
9.3%
2–1
8.4%
1–2
8.0%
0–0
7.2%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Brest and RC Lens are closely ranked, making this match important for both. The Poisson model shows a 38.3% chance for Brest to win, significantly higher than bookmakers' 23.3%, indicating a strong value bet at 4.30 odds.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionLigue 1
Date24 Apr, 18:45
Analysis published17 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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