LaLigaPrediction CA Osasuna — SevillaSunday, 26 April 2026 at 16:30
CA Osasuna
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9th in table
VS
Sevilla
Away
16th in table
Our Prediction
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
2.15
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
2.15
47% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.81
55% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +7.5%CA Osasuna
1.74
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.84
goals/match
Sevilla
1.10
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–1
11.2%
1–0
10.2%
2–1
9.7%
2–0
8.8%
0–1
6.4%
1–2
6.2%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The attacking strength of Osasuna against Sevilla’s weak defense leads to an expected total near 2.84 goals, favoring an open, high-scoring game. The model’s 54.0% probability for over 2.5 goals exceeds bookmakers’ 46.5%, indicating value. I back over 2.5 goals at 2.15, with the main risk being a defensively disciplined Sevilla.
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