LaLigaPrediction CA Osasuna — SevillaSunday, 26 April 2026 at 18:30
CA Osasuna
Home
9th in table
2 — 1
✓ Won
Sevilla
Away
16th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
2.05
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
2.15
47% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.81
55% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +3.5%CA Osasuna
1.74
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.84
goals/match
Sevilla
1.10
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–1
11.2%
1–0
10.2%
2–1
9.7%
2–0
8.8%
0–1
6.4%
1–2
6.2%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Osasuna’s stronger attack and more solid defense, especially at home, position them favorably against a struggling Sevilla side. The Poisson model gives Osasuna a 52.3% win probability, higher than the bookmakers’ 48.8%, indicating value. I back Osasuna to win at 2.05, with the main risk being a rare counter-attacking surge from Sevilla.
Match information
Share this prediction