LaLigaPrediction CA Osasuna — SevillaSunday, 26 April 2026 at 16:30
CA Osasuna
Home
9th in table
VS
Sevilla
Away
16th in table
Our Prediction
Home Win
match result
Odds
2.05
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
2.15
47% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.81
55% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +3.5%CA Osasuna
1.74
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.84
goals/match
Sevilla
1.10
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–1
11.2%
1–0
10.2%
2–1
9.7%
2–0
8.8%
0–1
6.4%
1–2
6.2%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Osasuna’s stronger attack and more solid defense, especially at home, position them favorably against a struggling Sevilla side. The Poisson model gives Osasuna a 52.3% win probability, higher than the bookmakers’ 48.8%, indicating value. I back Osasuna to win at 2.05, with the main risk being a rare counter-attacking surge from Sevilla.
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