Ligue 126 Apr, 18:45
Prediction Marseille — NiceSunday, 26 April 2026 at 18:45
Marseille
Home
6th in table
VS
Pending
Nice
Away
15th in table
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.90
best odds
Very high
Comparative Statistics
6th
Ranking
15th
1.9g/m
Avg attack
1.1g/m
1.3ag/m
Avg defence
1.9ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Marseille
65%
Draw
19%
Nice
15%
Over 2.5 goals
1.90
53% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.96
51% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +21.6%Marseille
2.84
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.93
goals/match
Nice
1.09
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Marseille+8% edge
Poisson
73%
Bookmaker
65%
Draw-4% unfavourable
Poisson
15%
Bookmaker
19%
Nice
Poisson
12%
Bookmaker
15%
Most probable scores
2–1
8.6%
3–1
8.2%
2–0
7.9%
3–0
7.5%
1–1
6.1%
4–1
5.8%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The expected total goals near 4 suggest a high-scoring game, with Marseille's attack and Nice's defensive weaknesses. The model's 74.3% chance for over 2.5 goals far exceeds bookmakers' 52.6%, signaling value. I back over 2.5 goals at 1.90, anticipating an open, attacking match, with the risk being a cautious, defensive game.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionLigue 1
Date26 Apr, 18:45
Analysis published20 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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