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Ligue 1

26 Apr, 20:45

Prediction Marseille — NiceSunday, 26 April 2026 at 20:45

Name: Home Win Prediction — Marseille vs Nice
Rating: 5
Author: Footexo

Marseille

Home

6th in table

1 — 1

✗ Lost

Nice

Away

15th in table

Our Prediction

🏠

Home Win

match result

Odds

1.46

best odds

Very high

Comparative Statistics

6th

Ranking

15th

1.9g/m

Avg attack

1.1g/m

1.3ag/m

Avg defence

1.9ag/m

Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)

Marseille

66%

Draw

19%

Nice

15%

Over 2.5 goals

1.91

52% implied

Under 2.5 goals

1.98

51% implied

∑Poisson Model

🎯 VALUE BET +4.1%

Marseille

2.84

expected goals (λ)

Expected total

3.93

goals/match

Nice

1.09

expected goals (λ)

Probability comparison

Marseille+7% edge

Poisson

73%

Bookmaker

66%

Draw-4% unfavourable

Poisson

15%

Bookmaker

19%

Nice

Poisson

12%

Bookmaker

15%

Most probable scores

2–1

8.6%

3–1

8.2%

2–0

7.9%

3–0

7.5%

1–1

6.1%

4–1

5.8%

Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.

Expert Analysis

Marseille's stronger attack and more solid defense make them clear favorites against a fragile Nice side. The Poisson model shows a 72.6% chance of Marseille winning, higher than bookmakers' 68.5%, indicating a profitable bet. I back Marseille to win at 1.46 due to their offensive edge and European ambitions, with the risk being a highly defensive Nice setup.

Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.

Bet on this prediction

Home Win

@ 1.46

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