Ligue 1Prediction Nantes — MarseilleFriday, 1 May 2026 at 18:45
Nantes
Home
17th in table
VS
Marseille
Away
6th in table
Our Prediction
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.82
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.82
55% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.03
49% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +12.7%Nantes
1.17
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.50
goals/match
Marseille
2.33
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–2
9.6%
1–1
8.2%
0–2
8.2%
1–3
7.4%
0–1
7.0%
0–3
6.4%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Marseille’s offensive firepower against Nantes’ leaky defense predicts a high-scoring game with 3.5 expected goals. Bookmakers undervalue the over 2.5 goals bet at 1.82, while the model estimates a 67.6% probability, indicating market inefficiency. I back over 2.5 goals at 1.82 due to Marseille’s attacking pressure and Nantes’ defensive vulnerabilities, with a 3-unit stake.
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