Ligue 1Prediction Nantes — MarseilleFriday, 1 May 2026 at 18:45
Nantes
Home
17th in table
VS
Marseille
Away
6th in table
Our Prediction
Away Win
match result
Odds
1.62
best odds
Comparative Statistics
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Over 2.5 goals
1.82
55% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.03
49% implied
∑Poisson Model
Nantes
1.17
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.50
goals/match
Marseille
2.33
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Most probable scores
1–2
9.6%
1–1
8.2%
0–2
8.2%
1–3
7.4%
0–1
7.0%
0–3
6.4%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Nantes’ offensive struggles contrast with Marseille’s stronger attack and better defense, favoring the visitors in this crucial fixture. The Poisson model assigns a 62.9% chance for Marseille, higher than implied by bookmakers, indicating a slight undervaluation. I back Marseille to win at 1.62 due to their offensive efficiency and Nantes’ defensive frailty under pressure, with a 3-unit stake.
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