Ligue 122 Apr, 17:00
Prediction Paris Saint Germain — NantesWednesday, 22 April 2026 at 17:00
Paris Saint Germain
Home
VS
Pending
Nantes
Away
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.33
best odds
Very high
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Paris Saint Germain
78%
Draw
14%
Nantes
8%
Over 2.5 goals
1.33
75% implied
Under 2.5 goals
3.30
30% implied
∑Poisson Model
Paris Saint Germain
3.51
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
4.29
goals/match
Nantes
0.78
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Paris Saint Germain+6% edge
Poisson
84%
Bookmaker
78%
Draw-5% unfavourable
Poisson
9%
Bookmaker
14%
Nantes
Poisson
5%
Bookmaker
8%
Most probable scores
3–0
9.8%
4–0
8.6%
2–0
8.4%
3–1
7.7%
4–1
6.8%
2–1
6.6%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The Poisson model predicts a high-scoring game with a 77.5% chance of over 2.5 goals, aligning well with the bookmaker odds. Betting on over 2.5 goals is a strong and valuable choice.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionLigue 1
Date22 Apr, 17:00
Analysis published15 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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