Ligue 122 Apr, 19:00
Prediction Paris Saint Germain — NantesWednesday, 22 April 2026 at 19:00
Paris Saint Germain
Home
1st in table
3 — 0
✓ Won
Nantes
Away
17th in table
Our Prediction
🏠
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.20
best odds
Very high
Comparative Statistics
1st
Ranking
17th
2.3g/m
Avg attack
0.9g/m
0.9ag/m
Avg defence
1.6ag/m
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Paris Saint Germain
82%
Draw
12%
Nantes
7%
Over 2.5 goals
1.88
53% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.00
50% implied
∑Poisson Model
Paris Saint Germain
2.76
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.29
goals/match
Nantes
0.53
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Paris Saint Germain
Poisson
83%
Bookmaker
82%
Draw
Poisson
12%
Bookmaker
12%
Nantes
Poisson
5%
Bookmaker
7%
Most probable scores
2–0
14.2%
3–0
13.0%
1–0
10.3%
4–0
9.0%
2–1
7.5%
3–1
6.9%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Paris Saint Germain’s dominant attack and Nantes’ weak defense create a clear advantage for PSG. The Poisson model gives PSG an 82.9% win probability, higher than bookmakers’ 78%, indicating value. I back PSG to win at 1.20, confident in their superiority, with the risk being Nantes’ defensive resilience.
Responsible gambling — Predictions are provided for informational purposes only. Sports betting carries risk. Gamble responsibly and within your means. Not for under-18s.
Match information
CompetitionLigue 1
Date22 Apr, 19:00
Analysis published19 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
Share this prediction