LaLiga23 Apr, 18:00
Prediction Rayo Vallecano — EspanyolThursday, 23 April 2026 at 18:00
Rayo Vallecano
Home
VS
Pending
Espanyol
Away
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.85
best odds
Moderate
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Rayo Vallecano
43%
Draw
31%
Espanyol
25%
Over 2.5 goals
1.90
53% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.93
52% implied
∑Poisson Model
Rayo Vallecano
1.79
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.74
goals/match
Espanyol
0.96
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Rayo Vallecano+14% edge
Poisson
57%
Bookmaker
43%
Draw-8% unfavourable
Poisson
23%
Bookmaker
31%
Espanyol-5% unfavourable
Poisson
20%
Bookmaker
25%
Most probable scores
1–0
11.5%
1–1
11.0%
2–0
10.3%
2–1
9.8%
0–0
6.4%
0–1
6.2%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The expected total goals are 2.74, with a 51.6% chance of over 2.5 goals according to the Poisson model. Given the attacking form of Rayo and Espanyol’s need to score, betting on over 2.5 goals is a solid choice with moderate confidence.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionLaLiga
Date23 Apr, 18:00
Analysis published16 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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