LaLiga23 Apr, 18:00
Prediction Rayo Vallecano — EspanyolThursday, 23 April 2026 at 18:00
Rayo Vallecano
Home
VS
Pending
Espanyol
Away
Our Prediction
🏠
Home Win
match result
Odds
1.88
best odds
High
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Rayo Vallecano
43%
Draw
31%
Espanyol
25%
Over 2.5 goals
1.90
53% implied
Under 2.5 goals
1.93
52% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +3.7%Rayo Vallecano
1.79
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
2.74
goals/match
Espanyol
0.96
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Rayo Vallecano+14% edge
Poisson
57%
Bookmaker
43%
Draw-8% unfavourable
Poisson
23%
Bookmaker
31%
Espanyol-5% unfavourable
Poisson
20%
Bookmaker
25%
Most probable scores
1–0
11.5%
1–1
11.0%
2–0
10.3%
2–1
9.8%
0–0
6.4%
0–1
6.2%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
Rayo Vallecano is in better form and higher in the standings than Espanyol, making them favorites. The Poisson model gives a 56.8% chance of a home win, higher than bookmakers' implied probability, indicating value on the 1.88 odds.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionLaLiga
Date23 Apr, 18:00
Analysis published16 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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