LaLiga24 Apr, 19:00
Prediction Real Betis — Real MadridFriday, 24 April 2026 at 19:00
Real Betis
Home
VS
Pending
Real Madrid
Away
Our Prediction
⚽
Over 2.5 Goals
over under
Odds
1.82
best odds
High
Probabilities (bookmaker margin removed)
Real Betis
27%
Draw
22%
Real Madrid
51%
Over 2.5 goals
1.82
55% implied
Under 2.5 goals
2.02
50% implied
∑Poisson Model
🎯 VALUE BET +6.2%Real Betis
1.37
expected goals (λ)
Expected total
3.16
goals/match
Real Madrid
1.79
expected goals (λ)
Probability comparison
Real Betis
Poisson
29%
Bookmaker
27%
Draw
Poisson
23%
Bookmaker
22%
Real Madrid
Poisson
48%
Bookmaker
51%
Most probable scores
1–1
10.4%
1–2
9.3%
0–1
7.6%
2–1
7.1%
0–2
6.8%
2–2
6.4%
Most probable score in blue. Calculated with Poisson model.
Expert Analysis
The Poisson model predicts a 61.1% chance of over 2.5 goals, higher than the bookmakers' 54.9%, indicating value. Betting on over 2.5 goals is a strong recommendation due to the offensive strengths and expected open game.
Other predictions for this match
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Match information
CompetitionLaLiga
Date24 Apr, 19:00
Analysis published17 Apr 2026
Odds sourcethe-odds-api
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